The devastation from Hurricane Charley has been on my mind this weekend.
So has the devastation from typhoon Rananim.

Politicans, climatologists, scientists, engineers and the public will argue, define, debate the whys of weather cycles, and that is understandable.
I’ve listened to the anger and frustration coming out of Florida at the inaccuracy of hurricane forcasting, and I’m not surprised because we are so used to manipulating and controlling the smaller aspects of our environment. Part of maturity for a society and it’s individuals is recognizing that no matter how good we get and understanding and preparing, natural events will not play by our rules.

Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice. - Will Durant

Is the loss of life Charley less than the loss of life from Typhoon Ramamin?
I don’t believe so, the economic costs will be higher in the US because because of ownership and how government and cultures perceive natural disasters and how they perceive their relationship to them.

The US saw Charley coming and put the word out. Floridians evacuated.
China saw Rananim coming and the province evacuated.

I think if we know an event is going to occur, it is prudent to teach people or enable people to weigh information from as many sources as possible and teach them to prepare. There is no shame on erring on the side of caution.
A lost day or two of business, some personal inconvenience today and even scorn from others is small compared to injury and loss of life. If we have the opportunity to understand, we can prepare whether neighbours chose to do so or not.

All of us could take a lesson from the weather, it pays no attention to criticism.

For example: by the year 2050…

The number of people worldwide vulnerable to a devastating flood is expected to mushroom to 2 billion by 2050 due to climate change, deforestation, rising sea levels and population growth in flood-prone lands, warn experts at the United Nations University.

One billion people — one sixth of the global population, the majority of them among the world’s poorest inhabitants – are estimated to live today in the potential path of a 100-year flood and, unless preventative efforts are stepped up worldwide, that number could double or more in two generations.

Floods presently impact an estimated 520+ million people per year worldwide, resulting in estimates of up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced disease, crop and livestock damage and other serious harm. UNU says unsustainable land use and other human actions aggravate the situation.

The greatest potential flood hazard is in Asia. Every year for the past two decades, more than 400 million people on average have been directly exposed to a flood.

We know deaths have been lowered in hurricane prone areas because of better forecasting and better communication. We know most deaths occur from the flooding, and most injuries are structure related.

I’m interested in the ability of countries to communicate effectively and equip citizens accordingly. Disaster experts talk of ‘hurricane amnesia.’ Human nature being what it is, someone living in an area that experiences a yearly season of severe storms may well weather nine that aren’t so bad. It’s the 10th one, the Charley, that teaches people to heed warnings and make decisions. Floridians on the west coast and inland who experienced a category 4 are more apt to respond as quickly as those who went through a category four 12 years ago. Nature is nothing if not a teacher.

One of the first things to go in a natural event is communication - the infrastructures we intuitively depend on are gone, power, phone, radio, TV, newspaper delivery, internet access. And communities and individuals are left to cope. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Have you ever noticed that when a storm warning is issued it’s the young people that flock to the beach? They are the ones that we see testing the wind and waves and their mettle. All the warnings in the world are lost until those broken bones, pummeling. scares or even death.

One person died in Jamica. Four people died in Cuba. Sixteen people died in Florida. Tropical storm Earl and Hurricane Danielle are out at sea. People will be wary, and many thousands will never experience hurricane amnesia after going through Charley.

Anger at forecasters is understandable, it is part of the process of shock and trauma, but one can hope that those living on floodplains, quake faults and storm paths move through the experience and learn to use technology and resources, to learn to effectively access the information available.

Nature isn’t a political animal. Perhaps we try to conquer it because it neither loves nor hates us. It is indifferent. We exist within it. We ignore or minimize it at our peril.

TV isn’t enough as a source to make informed decisions. Weather forecasters will be wrong. It is as caprious as weather itself to assume ‘experts’ make wise decisions.We can learn to log on to NOAA, FEMA etc. We can learn to watch the signs, and not rely on one information source. We can teach ourselves and our children how to find information and what to do. We can check on our neighbour before rescuers find them hiding in a bathtub hours after the storm.
Or we can wait for a Charley to learn life’s hard lessons.